Applications of Prospect Theory to Electoral Behavior
Publication Date : Jun-17-2026
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Prospect Theory is a descriptive model of behaviour under varying conditions of uncertainty, linking an individual’s risk preference to their reference point and to other behavioural patterns associated with risk. Although Prospect Theory was initially developed as a model of individual decision making, Prospect Theory has also been applied to organizational contexts, making it relevant to the study of electoral behaviour. The theory has been used to examine several areas in electoral behaviour, such as vote buying, party strategies, voter participation, leader’s strategies and reform requirements, often complementing existing electoral models. Prospect Theory concepts such as loss-aversion and reference dependence recur across this literature, particularly in discussions of voter preferences and responses to risk. This paper first presents an overview of Prospect Theory alongside relevant advancements to the theory. It then organizes applications of Prospect Theory to electoral behaviour into thematic sections, while situating these applications within broader electoral behaviour research. This review concludes by highlighting areas where further empirical research may be beneficial to understanding Prospect Theory’s explanatory value in electoral behaviour.
