Author(s) :

Luca Svendsen.

Volume/Issue :

Abstract :

Undocumented immigrants comprise a significant portion of the U.S. agricultural labor (42.03%). The Trump administration has emphasized its position on heightened enforcement and removals. These policy changes could reshape labor availability and costs across farm supply chains. A supplementary qualitative analysis traces supply-chain effects from farm to distribution. Supplementary findings indicate that undocumented agricultural labor associated with a greater state-level output and large scale reductions in this workforce may correspond to lower domestic production and increased supply chain costs. Analysis of these results underscores the economic relevance of undocumented labor. This study employs a 2023/2025 state-level linear regression model for variables affecting agricultural output: population, per-capita income, total unemployment, and census-region indicators (N = 50 states; adjusted R² = 0.773; F = 13.28 (Equation 4). This manuscript’s analytical data are sourced from the most recent 2023 and 2025 agricultural labor datasets to assess recent indicators of successful agriculture. While regression data is relatively current, it remains a retrospective analysis of indicators. The regression should be considered alongside 2025 immigration policy to contextualize potential future implications. Results show that population is a positive correlation of agricultural output (β1 = 1.3×10-07; p < 0.001), while unemployment shows no significant effect, and several eastern regions display lower output relative to others.