Author(s) :

Simon Liu.

Volume/Issue :

Abstract :

This paper uses nine years of National Football League (NFL) data to develop models that help teams decide whether to kick an extra point (XP) or attempt a two-point conversion after a touchdown. Two approaches are presented: a Possession-Neutral Model, which considers only the score and time left, and a Possession-Aware Model, which also accounts for possession. Both models use dynamic programming to estimate win probabilities in real time. The results suggest that possession meaningfully affects lategame win probability and that selected score margins can justify two-point attempts before the final moments of a game. The paper also reports important model assumptions, data processing rules, and sensitivity checks for the tie utility and score cap. The research provides data-backed guidance for ingame decision-making while identifying limitations that should be addressed in future work.