Author(s) :

Xiao Li, Jameson Augustin.

Volume/Issue :

Abstract :

The rapid growth of Bitcoin mining has created a new class of large, financially driven electricity consumers whose demand responds to cryptocurrency markets rather than fixed production schedules, raising concerns for grid planning and demand response design. This study examines whether Bitcoin price volatility is associated with less stable mining incentives and whether mining-related instability reduces the predictability of aggregate electricity demand. Using monthly data from January 2021 to November 2025 for Texas, the analysis combines Bitcoin price, hash price, electricity demand, temperature, and heating degree day data in reduced-form ordinary least squares regressions. Bitcoin price volatility is measured as the absolute monthly percentage change in Bitcoin prices. Mining load instability is proxied by the absolute monthly percentage change in Bitcoin hash price, while grid instability is measured using monthly variability in a state-level electricity demand proxy. The results show that Bitcoin price volatility is significantly associated with mining load instability, with a one percentage point increase in price volatility corresponding to an increase of approximately 2.5 units in the mining instability proxy. In contrast, mining load instability is not statistically significant in explaining aggregate electricity demand variability at the monthly, system-wide planning horizon. These findings suggest that mining-related risks may be masked at coarse time scales and require higherfrequency operational data for direct reliability assessment.