Author(s) :

Grace Liu.

Volume/Issue :

Abstract :

This study explores the strategic and financial development of Costco Wholesale Corporation, emphasizing its membership-based revenue model, expansion strategy, and digital transformation. Drawing on linear regression of nine years of historical data from Costco’s SEC filings (2016–2024), this analysis projects the company’s financial performance through the period 2025 to 2034. The models yield R-squared values of 99%, 97%, and 86% for membership revenue, total sales, and profit margin, respectively, indicating strong growth stability from 2016 to 2024. Membership fees, which accounted for approximately 66% of net income in fiscal year 2024, are identified as a key driver of profitability. The model forecasts a 56% increase in membership revenue by 2034 compared to 2024, with membership fees projected to comprise approximately half of total operating income. The study also highlights emerging challenges, including market saturation in the United States and slower international expansion, particularly in China due to localization barriers. Comparative analysis with Walmart and Amazon reveals lagging adoption of e-commerce and artificial intelligence. The findings suggest that while Costco’s core model remains robust, future competitiveness will depend on its ability to adapt to digital innovation and evolving global market conditions.